How Can Farmers Model Biodiversity Outcomes Before Making Changes?

New project study presents FRAMEtest, a decision support tool using systems modelling to help land use decision makers explore sustainable scenarios

Farmers need confidence that proposed changes will deliver results. FRAMEtest lets them explore management scenarios before committing to changes on their land. The tool simulates how interventions—hedgerow restoration, wildflower strips, reduced pesticides, organic conversion—would affect biodiversity, ecosystem services and farm economics across multiple years. It translates years of ecological research into an interactive platform farmers can actually use. By visualising outcomes in advance, the tool reduces uncertainty and supports more sustainable land use decisions. This approach recognises that farmers need evidence, not merely exhortations, to justify investment in conservation. The ability to compare scenarios builds confidence in decision-making.

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From Research Base to Useable Tools

Ecological research has documented how farming practices influence biodiversity. Yet farmers and land managers struggle to translate this knowledge into concrete decisions suited to their circumstances, budget constraints and conservation priorities. FRAMEtest bridges this gap through three core components. First, an agent-based model simulates how individual farming decisions aggregate into landscape-scale biodiversity patterns. Rather than treating the landscape as a static entity, it captures realistic farmer behaviour and decision-making.

The model represents farms and farmers as autonomous agents interacting within a synthetic landscape, allowing simulation of how management interventions by individual farmers cascade through the landscape. Second, machine learning modules trained on the model enable rapid scenario evaluation without computationally expensive simulations, making the tool accessible to practitioners. Third, an ecosystem services calculator quantifies multiple benefits—pollination, pest control, water quality, soil carbon—alongside biodiversity outcomes. This holistic approach supports nuanced decision-making that aligns conservation with farm profitability.

Making Complex Models Accessible

The virtual landscape generator creates realistic scenarios based on farm type, regional soils, climate and existing practices. Users input their land, current approaches and conservation goals, then explore intervention outcomes. The system visualises how different practices could affect biodiversity and farm economics across years. Farmers can compare scenarios not only by biodiversity gain but also by economic viability, soil health and carbon sequestration potential.

Farming decisions involve trade-offs—between conservation gain and economic viability, between soil health and carbon storage. FRAMEtest enables farmers to compare multiple intervention scenarios across multiple dimensions, supporting nuanced decision-making. By placing evidence-informed decision-making directly in the hands of land managers, the tool democratises access to sophisticated ecological modelling. This approach is particularly valuable for cluster-level decisions, where effective coordination requires careful assessment of shared objectives and local conditions.

The tool empowers farmers and land managers to make evidence-based choices with confidence in their likely outcomes. Systems thinking that integrates economic, ecological and social dimensions enables more transformative approaches to sustainable farming.

Read at https://doi.org/10.1007/s43621-025-00987-3 or explore other FRAMEwork publications at https://www.framework-biodiversity.eu/publications.

Access FRAMEtest here: https://recodo.io/page/frametest-decision-support-tool

Watch a webinar here: https://www.framework-biodiversity.eu/watch